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Despite the strengthening of the ruble, Russian imports in January-April grew by only 1.8%, while exports shrank by 5.9%, to $128.2 bn. Experts Alexander Firanchuk and Olga Ponomaryova explained the reasons for such dynamics in a commentary to RBC, citing the fall in commodity prices.

China’s delay in issuing export permits for rare earth metals may lead to serious losses and even suspension of operations of enterprises around the world, especially in the European automotive industry. This opinion was expressed by Antonina Levashenko, Head of International Best Practices Analysis Department at the Gaidar Institute, to RIA Novosti.

Amid growing geopolitical tensions on a global scale, trade wars, and the slowdown of globalization processes, the question of the future of the world’s reserve currencies is becoming particularly relevant. Evgeny Goryunov, Head of Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, carried out analysis to find out how stable the dollar’s position is and whether the yuan will be able to compete with it.

Artificial intelligence continues to attract the attention of investors and business leaders. However, as Yuri Pleskachev, Senior Researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s Quantitative Analysis of Economic Effects Department, pointed out, high-profile forecasts hide challenges: high project costs, the risk of technology obsolescence, and ambiguous implementation results.

Evgeny Goryunov, Head of Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, was one of the participants in the new edition of the Finam Investments podcast “Results of the Week”. Together with Yaroslav Kabakov, Chief Strategy Officer, and Timur Nigmatullin, Senior Investment Consultant at Finam, he discussed the Central Bank rate cut, its impact on the market, and the ruble’s prospects. During the discussion, Evgeny Goryunov expressed his views on inflation, asset values, the logic of the Central Bank and the impact of geopolitics on the economy.

Bank of Russia has cut the key rate to 20%. According to Evgeny Goryunov, Head of the Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, the Central Bank’s decision marks the beginning of the monetary policy easing cycle. In a commentary for Rossiyskaya Gazeta, he noted that the transition to a neutral rate level will take one and a half to two years, and during this time monetary conditions will remain tight.

In the wake of the recent anti-Russian sanctions and restrictions on the import of new technologies, the problem of achieving technological sovereignty and creating domestic import-substituting industries has come to the forefront for Russia. The need to achieve technological sovereignty is currently urgent for many countries due to the current geopolitical situation. At the same time, budget constraints force the governments of many countries to prioritize the development of certain industries. They are selected by countries according to various criteria.

Evgeny Goryunov, Head of the Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, in a commentary for RT expressed his opinion that the Russian economy is not in danger of economic slowdown, despite the current slowdown in GDP growth. The expert believes that the decline in inflation and the subsequent reduction of the key rate by the Central Bank will support growth and prevent the negative scenario from materializing.

Olga Ponomareva, expert at the Economic Policy Foundation, said in a commentary for RIA Novosti that the increase in import tariffs on steel in the US from 25% to 50% will not lead to the desired strengthening of the US steel industry. In her opinion, the tariffs will have a negative impact on key consumers, which will increase costs and reduce competitiveness.

Andrei Zubarev, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Senior Researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s Digital Finance Studies Department, took part in the Moscow 24 TV channel’s educational project “Moslektorium”. In the program, the expert spoke in detail about the essence of mining, blockchain and cryptocurrencies, as well as about who earns on this market. He explained the principles of the formation of the price of cryptocurrencies, the functioning of crypto exchanges and their impact on the world economy. In addition, the expert answered question on the possibility of using bitcoins to buy goods in the future.

Kirill Chernovol, a researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s International Best Practices Analysis Department, commenting for RBC on a study conducted by the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration on the «renaissance of the culture of service” in Russia, raised a number of important issues related to trust in civil servants, attracting qualified personnel and motivation of officials.

Evgeny Goryunov, Head of the Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, said in a commentary for RBC that the Bank of Russia had grounds for lowering the key rate at the next meeting on June 6. The expert noted that the steady decline in inflation was the main factor pointing in favor of a downward revision of the key rate at the next meeting of the Central Bank’s Board of Directors.

Anton Beloglazov, Head of Event-Based Economics Department at the Gaidar Institute, commented to RBC on fears of the Bank of Russia regarding a “bubble” in the primary residential housing market. The expert noted that, although the Central Bank records growth of the bubble indicator, it is more about “technical” growth rather than the actual emergence of such a risk.

Evgeny Goryunov, Head of Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, commented to RBC on the possible reduction of the Central Bank’s key rate as early as in June. The main argument in favor of such a decision is a steady decline in inflation.

According to the Bank of Russia’s April data, the number of vacancies published on HeadHunter fell to its minimum since the beginning of 2022, while the number of active job seekers hit a five-year high. Lyubov Filin, Head of Evidence-Based Regulatory Practice Department at the Gaidar Institute, commenting to RTVI stated that the observed cooling of the labor market is a stable nationwide trend.

In late May, the Kazakhstan authorities reported the release of an unknown substance at the Ust-Kamenogorsk Titanium-Magnesium plant (UKTMK).