Evgeny Goryunov, Head of Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, commented to RBC on the possible reduction of the Central Bank’s key rate as early as in June. The main argument in favor of such a decision is a steady decline in inflation.
While annual inflation (accumulated price growth over the previous 12 months) remains high at 10.23% general and 9.23% core, “if you look at the rate of price growth over the recent months, there is a clear movement towards stabilization,” the expert said.
“Since the Central Bank assumes to target inflation to 4% by the end of 2026, such a tough policy is no longer required to achieve it, and it is possible to start a cycle of gradual easing”, — believes Evgeniy Goryunov. He predicts a 25–50 bp rate cut, but does not exclude that the rate will remain unchanged, and market will receive a signal of monetary policy easing in July.