Anton Beloglazov explained the CBR data: “The risk of bubble at the primary real estate market is “technical”

“Price growth in the primary market may be due to the outstripping reduction in supply. According to the Analytical Center DOM.RF, launch of new projects in Q1 2025 amounted to 8.1 mln sq. m., -24% compared to Q1 2024”, — said the expert.

Anton Beloglazov also emphasized the reduction in the share of mortgage transactions. “The share of transactions involving mortgages fell from 78% in Q1 2024 to 66% in Q1 2025, while transactions involving installment payments, on the contrary, increased significantly due to the reduced availability of the traditional method of purchase, i.e. mortgages”, — said the expert.

“Currently, it is hardly worth mentioning the outstripping growth rate of real estate prices. According to DOM.RF, nominal price growth for new buildings in Q1 2025 amounted to 2.4%, while inflation for the same period was 2.7%. Thus, the real growth of prices for new buildings is -0.3%, which approximately corresponds to inflation”, — emphasized Anton Beloglazov.

With regard to deterioration of subindices of the Central Bank, the expert noted that the Central Bank relies on the Swiss bank UBS Global real estate bubble index international methodology. “Based on this methodology and the sources used to estimate the incoming indicators in the sub-indices, the Central Bank does record a ‘technical’ growth of sub-index values, but it is unlikely to indicate the actual emergence of such a risk, which was also mentioned by the Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank at the press conference,” concluded Anton Beloglazov.