Yuri Pleskachev explained why AI is not only an opportunity, but also a risk

Yuri Pleskachev explained why AI is not only an opportunity, but also a risk
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Artificial intelligence continues to attract the attention of investors and business leaders. However, as Yuri Pleskachev, Senior Researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s Quantitative Analysis of Economic Effects Department, pointed out, high-profile forecasts hide challenges: high project costs, the risk of technology obsolescence, and ambiguous implementation results.

On the one hand, a number of expert organizations (McKinsey, IDC, etc.) form positive forecasts:

  • +$13–20 trillion to global GDP by 2030.
  • 40% of jobs will be affected by AI — some will be automated, some will be transformed.
  • technologies are already increasing efficiency in healthcare, logistics, and analytics.

However, there is a downside to the use of artificial intelligence.

  • According to spot expert surveys, only 5–6% of companies in the US and Canada are actively using AI.
  • AI mistakes are costly: for example, facial recognition algorithms have led to $650 mn in lawsuits in the IT sector in 2022.
  • The revenue growth of Microsoft, Google and other giants does not correlate directly with their AI products.

Yuri Pleskachev notes that investing in AI is a risk. Training models, infrastructure, and hiring specialists require millions of dollars, while the cost growth may remain at 2.4 times per year on the horizon until 2030. In addition, AI is rapidly becoming obsolete. The solution developed today may become irrelevant in 12–18 months due to the progress of algorithms (for example, the transition from GPT-3 to GPT-4 took less than 2 years). Difficulties also arise when evaluating ROI. 70% of companies cannot accurately measure the effect of AI implementation (Harvard Business Review, 2023).

There are fairly persistent myths about “robots stealing jobs” that are not supported by real data. There is no explosive unemployment: employment in the content industry (e.g. copywriters in the US) is 15% higher than before the pandemic. AI is also more likely to complement humans rather than replace them: in marketing, 63% of companies use AI to analyze data, but creativity is left to humans.

Thus, AI is not a “magic pill” but a tool that requires a strategic approach. It can bring significant benefits to companies, but only those that take into account risks, use proper budget planning and show a high readiness to adapt to a rapidly changing environment. The main goal should be to build a system where technology strengthens business rather than becoming a black hole for investment.

Tuesday, 10.06.2025