The Gaidar Institute: “The regulator’s policy will remain tight, and the rate-cut cycle may pause”

“Rossiyskaya Gazeta” published findings from Gaidar Institute study “Inflation in the Russian Federation Has Accelerated” (Monitoring the Economic Situation in Russia, No. 15 (220), July 2026) in an article about the Bank of Russia’s decision to cut the key rate and what to expect for the economy going forward.

In the article, the journalist analyzes why the Central Bank decided to cut the key rate despite persistent inflationary risks and how this may affect the economy in the coming months.

Citing a study by the Gaidar Institute, Rossiyskaya Gazeta notes that inflation accelerated again in June. Experts attribute this primarily to rising motor fuel prices. In addition, high economic activity, low unemployment, and an increase in the money supply continue to drive price increases.

According to the authors of the Gaidar Institute study, in this situation, the Bank of Russia will most likely continue to act cautiously. This means that monetary policy will remain fairly tight, and further cuts to the key rate may proceed more slowly than the market had anticipated.

The study, “Inflation in the Russian Federation Has Accelerated,” was prepared by Evgeny Goryunov, Head of the Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute; Gleb Barabanov, Researcher at the department; and Pavel Trunin, Senior Researcher at the center for “Macroeconomics and Finance”.

Monday, 27.07.2026