Inflation in the Russian Federation has accelerated

After a slight decline in previous months, inflation picked up again in June 2026, driven primarily by a negative supply shock due to problems in the fuel market. As a result, annual inflation rose from 5.3% in May to 6.0% in June (core inflation remained virtually unchanged: 5.0% y/y in June, compared to 4.9% y/y in May). Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted monthly inflation on a y/y basis rose to 10.6% in June, up from 2.0% in May. Prolonged and significant rise in gasoline and diesel prices could trigger secondary effects, raising inflation expectations and accelerating price growth across a wide range of goods and services. All other things being equal, this would require the Bank of Russia to adopt a tighter monetary policy.