Sergey Drobyshevsky, Principal Researcher at the Gaidar Institute spoke with RBC about the current situation on the foreign exchange market and his forecast for the ruble exchange rate in the coming months.
According to the expert, amid sanctions the Russian currency's exchange rate primarily depends today on export revenues and, to a lesser extent, on the Ministry of Finance’s operations.
“Under financial sanctions and the de facto 'disconnection' of the Russian currency market from global markets, the ruble exchange rate is determined primarily by foreign exchange earnings from exports and the Finance Ministry's operations. The balance of foreign trade remains the primary factor," Sergey Drobyshevsky noted.
The expert believes that the ruble will continue to strengthen in the summer of 2026 on the back of high oil prices.
“In June, the market will still receive an influx of foreign currency earnings from high oil prices which prevailed in April and May. We estimate that high prices will remain in place at least throughout the summer, so the ruble will be under pressure to strengthen,” Sergey Drobyshevsky explained.
At the same time, the possible increase in the volume of currency purchases by the Central Bank of Russia in the interests of the Ministry of Finance will only be able to partially curb this trend, Sergey Drobyshevsky believes.
“Even if currency purchases increase, it is unlikely to reverse the overall trend. Seasonal demand for currency before the holiday season currently has virtually no impact on the exchange rate,” Sergey Drobyshevsky noted.
According to Sergey Drobyshevsky’s forecast, further dynamics of the ruble will depend on the development of the situation in the Middle East and oil prices.
“If the conflict in the Persian Gulf ends soon and oil prices return to $50-60 per barrel in the fall, the ruble could gradually weaken to Rb80-82 per US dollar. If high oil prices persist, the ruble could strengthen to Rb55-60 per US dollar by the end of the year," concluded Sergey Drobyshevsky.