Sergey Drobyshevsky: Economic slowdown will return Russia to sustainable GDP growth

«In our opinion, Maxim Reshetnikov’s assessment of the situation in the Russian economy is fair enough, but I would not consider it as negative. Firstly, during the past year, there was a positive output gap (overheating) in the Russian economy and this was noted both in the RF Central Bank’s materials and independent analysts’ estimates," said Sergey Drobyshevsky.

According to Sergey Drobyshevsky, the most explicit factors were not so much high growth rates as accelerating inflation, growing producer costs and labor shortages. «Slowdown in such a situation does not mean a recession or even zero growth rates, but a return of GDP growth rates to stable long-term values that ensure a balance in dynamics and other macroeconomic indicators," Sergey Drobyshevsky noted.

«Secondly, according to real-time assessments of manufacturing dynamics (NRU HSE, SMASF, IEF RAS), in terms of the supply of goods, the lowest point of the slowdown in manufacturing was passed early in autumn 2024, and in recent months the manufacturing growth rates have increased again, so there is no risk of the import substitution process coming to a halt," Sergey Drobyshevsky assured.

Thirdly, the fact that the slowdown is most evident in consumer spending and consumer lending dynamics has positive aspects, as well. A change in households’ behavior model from consumption to saving gives banks more funds to finance companies’ investment demand, while investment lending has a markedly greater effect on sustainable long-term growth than current consumption lending.

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