Sergey Drobyshevsky, Principal Researcher at the Gaidar Institute, presented his forecast regarding the pending decision by the Bank of Russia on the key rate. The expert believes that in order to effectively combat inflation, it is necessary to reduce the rate, but the risks associated with the weakening of the ruble may adjust the regulator's plans.
“Considering the anti-inflationary policy and return of inflation to the target on the horizon by the end of next year, I would say that the optimal decision of the Bank of Russia at the meeting on September 12, 2025 is to reduce the key rate to no less than 16% per annum, even to 14.5–15%,” the expert said.
Sergey Drobyshevsky also highlights the tendency for the ruble to weaken, which could become a restraining element. "The emerging tendency for the ruble to weaken in the coming months, which is included in the expectations of many bank analysts and experts, looks alarming.
On the one hand, a weaker ruble exchange rate will certainly support Russian exporters and provide additional revenue to the budget, however, we must not forget that the ruble exchange rate and expectations of its decline are a powerful inflationary factor,” the expert emphasized.
“The final decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in my opinion, should be the result of an assessment of the balance between the trend of slowing inflation and expectations of ruble depreciation,” concluded Sergey Drobyshevsky.