Sergey Drobyshevsky, Principal Researcher at the Gaidar Institute, shared his forecast for the dynamics of the Bank of Russia’s key rate in an interview with URA.RU. According to his assessment, by the end of 2026, the key rate could fall by almost half, from the current 17% to 8-10%.
The expert noted that in the 2026 draft federal budget, the government has set an average annual forecast for the key rate at 12-13%. “If by the end of 2025 the rate is around 16%, then in order to achieve an average annual value of 12-13% in 2026, it will need to be reduced to around 8% by the end of next year,” explained Sergey Drobyshevsky.
He stressed that such a reduction in the key rate would reduce the cost of government borrowing: "At least in Q4 2026, the government expects to borrow at rates well below 10% per annum. The budget has been calculated taking into account the necessary borrowing volumes and the increase in public debt. Judging by the comments of both the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, these parameters are acceptable to both sides."
The full text of the interview is available here