Sergey Drobyshevsky, Principal Researcher at the Gaidar Institute, told the RBC how the Hormuz crisis will impact the Russia’s economy
According to Sergey Drobyshevsky, rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and a surge in oil prices above $100 resulted in suspending interest rate changes by leading global central banks. In this context, the Russia’s economy enjoyed a more advantageous position due to increased commodity revenues.
He believes, rising oil prices directly support the budget: oil and gas revenues are partially restored to planned levels, reducing the deficit and decreasing the need for borrowing. However, the impact on the ruble exchange rate remains diverse: rising export revenues theoretically contribute to its appreciation, but after 2022, this dependence has become less pronounced due to restrictions on capital flows and changes in foreign trade.
Sergey Drobyshevsky emphasized that a possible strengthening of the ruble would help curb inflation. A stronger currency reduces the cost of imported goods and curbs price increases. This potentially creates conditions for easing monetary policy and lowering the key rate.
"In the current realities, the Bank of Russia is focusing primarily on domestic factors, i.e., inflation, budget and economic activity. The influence of the FRS and ECB interest rate policies on its decisions is currently minimal," Drobyshevsky noted, adding that global shocks are increasingly less influential on the Russian regulator's policy.