Principal Researcher at the Gaidar Institute, Sergey Drobyshevsky spoke Forbes about the outlook for the key rate and the impact of the budget deficit on the economy.
According to the expert, the Bank of Russia currently has all the necessary tools to maintain balance in the money market even at the current level of interest rates.
“The Central Bank has the capabilities and tools to ensure balance in the money market at the current level of interest rates and with a budget deficit of up to 3–3.5% of GDP,” — noted Sergey Drobyshevsky.
At the same time, the economist emphasized that if the budget deficit turns out to be higher, the regulator will likely have to raise the key rate again to curb inflation.
“However, we hope that by the end of the year, the federal budget deficit will remain below 3% of GDP, which will create conditions for a further reduction in the key rate in 2026,” the expert added.