Russian Economy in 2021. Trends and Outlooks (Issue 43)

Publication date
Wednesday, 22.06.2022

Authors
Abramov A.E., Avksent'ev N.A., Aliev S.A., Apevalova E.A., Arlashkin I.YU., Baeva M.A., Balandina G.V., Barbashova N.E., Barinova V.A., Belev S.G., Bozhechkova A.V., Borzyh K.A., Burdyak A.YA., Volovik N.P., Grishina E.E., Dezhina I.G., Deryugin A.N., Dorohina K.M., Zemcov S.P., Zubov S.A., Ignatov A.A., Izryadnova O.I., Kazenin K I., Kaukin A.C., Klyachko T.L., Knobel' A.YU., Kulakov K.YU., Larionova M.V., Leonov E.A. Makarov A.V., Mau V.A., Mal'ginov G.N., Mkrtchyan N.V., Miller E.M., Podverbnyh U.S., Polezhaeva N.A., Ponomarev YU.YU., Popova I.M., Radchenko D.M., Radygin A.D., Saharov A.G., Sisigina N.N., Sokolov I.A., Sternik S.G., Ternovskij D.S., Tishchenko T.V., Trunin P.V., Uzun V.YA., Florinskaya YU.F., Careva YU.V., Tsuhlo S.V., Hasanova R.R., Chernova M.I., Shagajda N.I., Shadrin A.E., Shelepov A.V.

Series
Russian Economy: Trends and Perspectives

Annotation
The review “Russian Economy. Trends and Outlooks” has been published by the Gaidar Institute since 1991. This is the 43th issue. This publication provides a detailed analysis of of the most significant trends in the Russian economy, global trends in the social and economic development. The work contains 6 big sections that highlight different aspects of Russia’s economic development, which allow to monitor all angles of ongoing events over a prolonged period: global economic and political challenges and national responses, economic growth and economic crisis; the monetary and budget spheres; financial markets and institutions; the real sector; social sphere; institutional changes. The work is based on an extensive array of statistical data that forms the basis of original computation and numerous charts confirming the conclusions.

Contents
Section 1. Economic policy in a pandemic: the experience gained in 2020–2021  9
1.1. Global trends and challenges   11
1.2. The trends and specific features of Russia’s economic policy  22
Section 2. The monetary and budgetary sphere  31
2.1. Monetary policy   31
  2.1.1. The main trends of the monetary policy   31
  2.1.2. The money market  34
  2.1.3. Inflation processes  40
  2.1.4. Balance of payments and FX rate  43
2.2. Fiscal policy  49
  2.2.1. Characteristics of the budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation   49
  2.2.2. Characteristics of the federal budget  55
  2.2.3. Interbudgetary relations and subnational finances  59
Annex 1
Municipal and sub-federal debt market Market development dynamic  68
Section 3. Financial markets and financial institutions  81
3.1. The Russian financial market  81
  3.1.1. The stock market   81
  3.1.2. Financial crises in modern Russia  88
  3.1.3. Equity risk premium   96
  3.1.4. The fundamental characteristics of the stock market  104
  3.1.5. The organization of the stock market  116
  3.1.6. The general review of the domestic bond market  125
  3.1.7. Fundamental characteristics of corporate bonds  129
  3.1.8. The organization of the corporate bond market   132
  3.1.9. The government bond market   137
  3.1.10. Futures market   143
  3.1.11. Financial intermediaries and the exchange   146
  3.1.12. Investors   150
3.2. Banking sector   163
  3.2.1. Key indicators and financial performance of the banking sector  163
  3.2.2. Corporate lending  167
  3.2.3. Retail lending   170
  3.2.4. Mortgage lending  172
  3.2.5. Credit institutions resources  175
Sector 4. The real economy   179
4.1. Dynamics and structure of GDP and investments   179
  4.1.1. Demand and supply   179
  4.1.2. GDP generation by source of income: wages, employment, labor productivity  185
  4.1.3. Use of GDP: household final consumption expenditure  187
  4.1.4. Investment in fixed assets  189
4.2. Sectoral dynamics of industrial production in 2021  196
  4.2.1. Dynamics of the industrial production index in Q1  198
  4.2.2. Industrial production index in Q2  199
  4.2.3. Index in Q3   201
  4.2.4. Dynamics of the industrial production index in Q4  203
4.3. Russian industrial sector in 2021 (based on business survey findings)   205
  4.3.1. Q1 2021  206
  4.3.2. Second quarter   208
  4.3.3. Third quarter  211
  4.3.4. Fourth quarter  214
  4.3.5. 2021 is the year of the Russian industry’s exit from the viral crisis of 2020  216
4.4. The transportation industry   217
  4.4.1. Post-pandemic recovery of the transportation industry  217
  4.4.2. Performance indicators  219
  4.4.3. Transportation dynamics, the state of transport infrastructure and rolling stock of individual types of transport   224
4.5. The second year of the pandemic: food security   231
  4.5.1. Impact of the pandemic on food security  231
  4.5.2. State of agricultural production  232
  4.5.3. Limits on labor migration   234
  4.5.4. Rising food prices  234
  4.5.5. Measures to reduce/restrict consumer price growth   237
  4.5.6. Export of agricultural products   240
  4.5.7. The state of food security   242
4.6. Foreign trade  244
  4.6.1. The state of the world economy and the global trade   244
  4.6.2. Price environment for the main goods of Russian exports and imports   246
  4.6.3. Main indicators of Russian foreign trade   250
  4.6.4. Regional pattern of Russian foreign trade   255
  4.6.5. Regulation of Russian foreign trade   256
4.7. Russia’s participation in WTO trade disputes   263
  4.7.1. Overall situation concerning World Trade Organization (WTO ) 263
  4.7.2. Russia and the WTO trade dispute settlement mechanism   265
  4.7.3. Russia as plaintiff  266
  4.7.4. Russia as a defendant   267
  4.7.5. Russia as a third party   269
4.8. Small and medium-sized businesses during coronavirus crisis   291
  4.8.1. Anti-crisis support measures for SMEs   291
  4.8.2. Dynamics of the number of enterprises  292
  4.8.3. Employment in the SME sector and self-employment  295
  4.8.4. Changes in sectoral structure   297
  4.8.5. Changes in the availability of credit and access to capital   300
Section 5. Social sphere   303
5.1. Personal income and the poverty rate   303
  5.1.1. The movement of personal income and its components   303
  5.1.2. The movement patterns of subjective poverty and monetary poverty, and income inequality   306
5.2. Retail trade, services and consumer prices: recovery to the pre-pandemic levels   308
5.3. Labor market dynamics   313
5.4. Migration  318
  5.4.1. Long-term migration  318
  5.4.2. Temporary migration  321
5.5. Demographic development   324
5.6. Fertility and birth order in Russia by regions: a pandemic impact?   329
5.7. Public health  332
  5.7.1. COVID-19 pandemic  333
  5.7.2. The mandatory health insurance system   336
  5.7.3. Inventory and logistics support the public health system   338
  5.7.4. Staffing  340
  5.7.5. Drug provision of the population   342
5.8. Education system in 2021   345
  5.8.1. The coronavirus pandemic and the development of education in Russia  345
  5.8.2. General (school) education   346
  5.8.3. Secondary vocational education   351
  5.8.4. Higher education  355
  5.8.5. New strategic initiatives in the education system  358
5.9. The housing market in Russian cities and housing construction in 2021  361
  5.9.1. Market price indexes   361
  5.9.2. Construction and commission of new housing   363
  5.9.3. The construction industry and measures of its state support   370
  5.9.4. Concessional mortgage lending programs   372
  5.9.5. Dynamics of demand and the price situation in the primary market of Moscow   377
Section 6. Institutional changes  381
6.1. The public sector and privatization  381
  6.1.1. The scope of public ownership   381
  6.1.2. Privatization policy   386
  6.1.3. The presence of the state in the economy and the issues of management of conomic subjects operating in the public sector  392
  6.1.4. The budgetary effect of government property management policy   398
  6.1.5. A new format of the state’s ownership policy   407
6.2. Company bankruptcies: current trends   413
  6.2.1. The dynamics of bankruptcies in Russia: compensatory growth in the number of bankruptcies and tougher responsibilities of owners   413
  6.2.2. Reforming the institution of bankruptcy: EU and Russian practices   420
6.3. Corporate governance during the coronavirus crisis: a course towards diversification of interests and its slowdown in implementation of its principles  429
  6.3.1. The role of the COVID-19 pandemic in the evolution of corporate governance. Recognition of stakeholder interests   429
  6.3.2. The impact of the coronavirus crisis on corporate governance practices in Russian companies   432
6.4. The state of science and innovation   441
  6.4.1. Changing the science management system   442
  6.4.2. Sources and scale of science funding  445
  6.4.3. Human resources and science outcomes   449
  6.4.4. Initiatives to support and promote science   451
  6.4.5. The impact of the pandemic: developing open science   458
  6.4.6. Status and initiatives in technological innovation  460
6.5. Customs administration  465
6.6. Russia in the system of multilateral cooperation   471
  6.6.1. The outputs of work in G20 under the Italian presidency   471
  6.6.2. The BRICS: 15 years of cooperation  474
  6.6.3. The International Monetary Fund (IMF): an increase in lending and stalled reforms 476
  6.6.4. The World Bank Group: cooperation amid the moratorium on new projects in the Russian Federation   478
  6.6.5. The World Health Organization: development of the global healthcare system amid the pandemic  479
  6.6.6. The UN: a new stage in negotiations on international information security   481
  6.6.7. The outcomes of the 26th Conference of the parties to the United Nations framework convention on climate change   483
  6.6.8. Green deal and Nord Stream 2 in relations between Russia and the European Union  485
  6.6.9. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO): twenty years of cooperation  487
  6.6.10. Cooperation with the EEU: development of the digital and climate agenda   489
Annex 2
Timeline of the key events in the spread of the new coronavirus infection in 2021  493
References   517
Authors  561

Notes

UDC 338.1(470+571)"2021" 
BBC 65.9(2Рос)"2021
R95 

Russian Economy in 2021. Trends and Outlooks. (Issue 43) – М.: Gaidar Institute Publishers, 2022. 568 pp.

Еditors – Alexei Kudrin, doctor of sciences (economics), Аlexander Radygin, doctor of sciences (economics), Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev, doctor of sciences (economics).

ISBN 978-5-93255-637-5

Full version
/files/text/trends/2021eng/Book.pdf

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