In a commentary for Vzglyad, Vladimir Sedalishchev, Expert at the Economic Policy Foundation, assessed the risks to the European Union in connection with US threats to impose tariffs over the dispute over Greenland. In his opinion, Washington's move could force Europe to reconsider its energy sanctions.
Vladimir Sedalishchev pointed out that the sharp decline in Russian gas imports after 2022 has led to the EU's dangerous dependence on American LNG. A new trade war, in which Washington could use energy as leverage, threatens the continent with a deep crisis.
"This will be a severe energy and industrial shock for the EU economy, comparable to the crisis phenomena after the start of the SVO in 2022. Therefore, we may well see natural gas prices rise several times over, because it will not be possible to quickly replace a supplier of a quarter of our imports," the expert said.
At the same time, he believes that US pressure could radically change the balance of power. Such a blow by the US to the EU could prove beneficial for both Russia and Qatar, as it could prompt Brussels to postpone its decision to abandon Russian LNG, Vladimir Sedalishchev noted.
Moreover, according to the expert, it could even be strategically advantageous for Russia to contribute to such a crisis. "It may be more beneficial for our country to join this blockade in order to exacerbate the crisis in the EU, even if it goes against economic logic, but in favor of military logic, as the intensification of deindustrialization processes in the EU and the associated closure of production facilities, inflation, and other negative phenomena may cause a rise in protest sentiment, an increase in the popularity of Eurosceptics, and ultimately increased pressure on European governments to yield to Trump or stop supporting Ukraine," said Vladimir Sedalishchev.