Trump's Trade Policy: balancing "rebalancing" with "high import dependence"

The RT has reviewed the issue No.15(197), of the Monitoring of Russia’s economic outlook "The US trade policy: current situation and prospects", prepared by Alexander Knobel, Senior Researcher at the International Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute, and Olga Ponomareva, Expert at the Economic Policy Found. The study is devoted to the analysis of the current US trade policy in the context of new tariffs introduced by the Donald Trump administration against more than 60 countries.

The authors believe that one of Trump’s key goals for the next four years is "restoring the balance in trade relations and bringing manufacturing back to the US," which should stimulate the domestic labor market and investments. According to the authors, this goal can be achieved among other things through tariffs.

However, the study reveals contradictions in the policy under consideration. The White House administration, despite public threats, has repeatedly paused and made exceptions. The reason for this inconsistency, according to experts of the Gaidar Institute, is the “high dependence of the United States on imports amid established value chains.”

The authors emphasize the uncertainty of the situation and challenges to predicting the development of the negotiation processes.

“Trade war as a means of combating chronic large-scale trade deficits has once again become the keynote of American trade policy after Donald Trump got back, which, as in 2017–2019, results in growing uncertainty and instability of trade flows after the pandemic shocks and anti-Russian sanctions,” the authors of the study noted. They also noted that “Russia has to monitor developments to assess the risks for exporters and domestic market due to redirection of trade flows.”

Monday, 04.08.2025