Anastasia Levchenko, Researcher of the Industrial Organization and Infrastructure Economics Department at the Gaidar Institute, commented to RBC on the possible impact of negotiations between the US and Iran on the global oil market and prospects of the oil prices.
According to the expert, if negotiations progress, the price of Brent crude could indeed fall to $70–80 per barrel in the coming months. However, the likelihood of a quick and comprehensive consensus between Washington and Tehran remains low due to significant disagreements between the parties.
"The US continues to insist on the transfer of enriched uranium and full access for IAEA inspectors, while Iran demands the complete lifting of sanctions and security guarantees. The most realistic scenario now appears to be a temporary tactical memorandum, which would reduce tensions but would not resolve the key differences, rather than a final agreement," noted Anastasia Levchenko.
She added that uncertainty surrounding the negotiations will remain a major factor for the global oil market and energy price dynamics.