TASS reviewed issue No. 21 (203) of the analytical review “Monitoring of Russia’s Economic Outlook,” prepared by Ilya Sokolov, Leading Researcher at the Gaidar Institute. The study “Sustainability of Regional Budgets is Beyond Doubt” is devoted to analyzing the execution of the consolidated budget of the subjects of the Russian Federation for the first seven months of 2025. The study notes a decline in budgetary balance in the regions compared to the same period last year.
Despite the fact that the total revenue of the consolidated budget of the RF subjects grew by 8% in nominal terms, in real terms (taking into account the consumer price index) there was a decrease of 1.6%. Expenditures, on the contrary, went up both in nominal terms (by 19.4%) and in real terms (by 8.8%). As a result, the aggregate surplus of regional budgets dropped significantly, amounting to Rb246.2 bn against Rb1.5 trillion rubles a year earlier.
Ilya Sokolov noted that maintaining an acceptable level of balance and debt burden is a positive development. However, the expert expressed concern about a potential deterioration in the situation by the end of the year due to a reduction in income tax revenues and faster growth in expenditures. To balance their budgets, regions may need additional financial assistance from the federal government or a relaxation of restrictions on commercial borrowing.
The analysis showed that profit tax revenues fell by 13.8% in real terms. At the same time, personal income tax revenues are showing positive dynamics, which the expert attributes to wage growth and the introduction of a progressive tax scale.
The expert emphasized that the debt burden of most regions is relatively safe, but as budget balance deteriorates towards the end of the year, a moderate increase is likely.