The Gaidar Institute's Center for Evidence-Based Expertise (CEBE) has presented preliminary findings of a comprehensive study of Russia’s secondary residential real estate market. The study examines the current profile of the secondary housing market, analyzes the risks associated with transactions, assesses the effectiveness of the existing infrastructure supporting such transactions and identifies effective mechanisms for upgrading the security of market participants.
In recent years, the secondary real estate market has become the focus of public and legislative debate. High-profile cases of fraudulent home sales have raised the need for additional citizen protection mechanisms and led to the discussion of a wide range of legislative initiatives aimed at protecting the interests of sellers, bona fide buyers and civil turnover. These can be roughly divided into three groups:
1) measures in force before the transaction is completed (ex ante) (for example, mandatory notarization, mandatory legal support, etc.);
2) measures implemented at the stage of execution of the contract (for example, the introduction of a cooling-off period, a ban on cash payments and money transfers to any account other than the seller’s account, etc.);
3) measures after a dispute has arisen (ex post) (for example, a ban on cancellation of the buyer's title deed until the seller has returned the money to the buyer, etc.)
Since many proposed measures are currently assessed fragmentarily and without a comprehensive analysis of their legal, economic and infrastructural implications, the aim of this study was to provide a systemic assessment of the secondary real estate market based on data, judicial statistics, economic modeling and a comparative legal analysis of best international practices for combating fraud and facilitating the sustainability of civil transactions. The market is viewed as a unified ecosystem in which transaction security is ensured not by a single institution, but by a combination of participants: realtors, notaries, lawyers, banks, digital services, government information systems and judicial protection mechanisms. This approach allows for a comprehensive assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of each existing instrument, their complementary role in ensuring transaction security and, consequently, to determine which solutions can truly enhance the level of protection for market participants while maintaining the sustainability of civil transactions and the balance of interests of all participants.
The research methodology encompasses several complementary approaches: a nationwide survey of home buyers on the secondary market, in-depth interviews with notaries who regularly certify real estate transactions, an analysis of judicial practice in cases challenging transactions and cases involving notaries facing civil liability, identifying the best international solutions aimed at the preventive detection of fraudulent schemes, such as anti-fraud mechanisms involving banks, telecom operators and other market participants, and economic and mathematical modeling of the consequences of various options for regulating the real estate market.
Among the legislative initiatives under consideration, particular attention is given to the introduction of mandatory notarization of transactions involving secondary housing as the most discussed measure, which potentially has a significant impact not only on the secondary real estate market, but also on related sectors of the economy.
Crucially, the study does not presume the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of mandatory notarization. Rather, it aims to objectively assess the extent to which this measure can address the stated problem, whether it is proportionate to its scale, and what legal, economic and infrastructural consequences it may entail for market participants and the economy as a whole. Thus, the analysis is not limited to an assessment of the legal framework itself, but also includes a study of international regulatory experience and Russian judicial practice in disputes related to challenging purchase and sale agreements concluded under the influence of fraudulent actors (including cases similar to the "L. Dolina case"), as well as disputes involving the civil liability of notaries. A total of over 500 cases were analyzed, revealing certain practical limitations of the notarial form of transaction as a mechanism for protecting sellers, in particular the difficulty of holding notaries liable, as well as the limited amount of compensation awarded and insurance coverage. In addition, the assessment of the socio-economic effectiveness of the initiative under consideration is based on an analysis of the behavioral economics of consumers and economic and mathematical modeling of possible regulatory scenarios.
Thus, the study provides an evidence-based basis for professional discussion on the development of secondary real estate market regulation based on a comprehensive risk assessment and the search for solutions that can simultaneously ensure citizen safety, market stability and a balanced interest for all participants. The work is currently ongoing: modeling of various regulatory scenarios and an assessment of their socioeconomic impacts are being completed; the findings will be published in H2 2026.