The Gaidar Institute has released a new study “Developing a Methodology for Assessing the Impact of Artificial Intelligence and Automation on Labor Market Indicators” written by Andrey Zubarev, Senior Researcher at the Digital Finance Research Department; Olga Bekirova, Researcher at the Digital Finance Research Department; and Deni Sugaipov, Researcher at the Mathematical Modeling of Economic Processes Department. A summary of the study’s findings was published by
In Russia, about 50 professions are simultaneously under dual technological pressure—they are subject to both automation and the implementation of artificial intelligence (AI). These include translators, journalists, designers, marketers, app developers, and public relations specialists. These professions combine routine tasks with elements of creativity and communication—precisely what modern AI systems are becoming increasingly adept at performing.
However, the effects of these technologies vary. Automation is already exerting real pressure on wages: an econometric analysis of data from the Russian Monitoring of Economic Conditions and Population Health (RMEC) for 2011–2024 showed that in professions with a high potential for automation, wage growth rates are slowing down or even declining. For example, in regions (excluding Moscow and St. Petersburg), the impact of automation on wage dynamics was statistically significant and negative.
At the same time, the impact of artificial intelligence on wages has not yet been statistically detected—this means that a mass displacement of workers by AI has not yet occurred, although the potential risk for certain professions is high. Other reasons for the lack of AI’s impact on the labor market may include both the small number of observations available for analysis and the fact that AI has only just begun to be introduced into the Russian labor market, whereas data is available only up to 2024.
Interestingly, traditional automation (industrial robots and equipment) primarily affects the “middle” of the labor market—technical specialists. Generative AI, on the other hand, is beginning to penetrate fields previously considered “safe”: law, finance, teaching, and creative professions.
Nevertheless, unlike in Western countries, where “technological unemployment” is actively discussed, the situation in Russia is different. The unemployment rate remains at a record low—around 2.2–2.3%—and businesses are facing a labor shortage. Technology complements rather than replaces labor. However, this complementarity does not always lead to wage growth: in vulnerable professions, even with continued employment, incomes may stagnate or decline.
Why is this important?
Russia is on the verge of a major transformation of the labor market. It is already becoming necessary to:
- Revise educational programs
- Develop retraining programs
- Prepare social protection measures for vulnerable groups of workers
Without proactive policies, the risks of technological displacement could lead to increased inequality and social tension. But with the right approach, AI and automation can become drivers of productivity growth and job creation.