Vladimir Sedalishchev, expert of the Economic Policy Foundation, and Dmitry Kuznetsov, a Researcher of the International Trade Department, commented to TASS that termination of trade relations between Russia and the EU could only result in a loss of no more than 2% of Russia’s GDP under current conditions, given the volume of trade between the parties. According to Vladimir Sedalishchev, this indicator in 2024 was "about Euro 68 bn, of which 32 bn came from imports from Russia. This is not much compared to Russia’s GDP of $2 trillion."
Dmitry Kuznetsov agreed: “Obviously, the remaining trade flows were beneficial to both Russia and the EU, but the current volumes do not give grounds to expect macroeconomically significant effects of a complete refusal either for the Russian economy or, even more so, for the EU economy, since Europe was already gradually losing its status as a key sales market for Russian energy resources.”
The expert added that it is unlikely that pipeline gas supplies will be redirected, unlike LNG and crude oil, which can be exported to other buyers, possibly with some discounts. "Thus, losses for Russia can be estimated at $10 bn annually, while the main blow will again fall on the Russian exporter of pipeline gas Gazprom, which may lose about a fifth of its exports. On the scale of Russian exports, this is about $430 bn, on the whole, it is not a significant amount nationwide, even more so," concluded Dmitry Kuznetsov.