Tatyana Ivakhnenko, Researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s Mathematical Modeling of Economic Processes Department, analyzed trends in real average per capita cash income from 2001 to 2025.
Over the course of 25 years, the calculated indicator of real average per capita cash income—derived by deflating average per capita cash income using the average annual CPI—increased more than threefold compared to the 2001 level. However, this growth was uneven.
From 2001 to 2013, real incomes rose rapidly: over that period, they increased by 157.1%, with an average annual growth rate of about 8.2%. This was due to favorable external economic conditions, high prices for raw materials, and growth in investment, employment, and wages. The most rapid growth occurred between 2001 and 2007: real income increased by 108.3% compared to the 2001 level, and the average annual growth rate was about 13%. During the global financial crisis, growth rates fell sharply: in 2008, real income rose by 3.87%, and in 2009, by 1.81% compared to the previous year, respectively. Overall, between 2007 and 2009, income increased by only 5.7%, and the average annual growth rate fell to 2.8%. Growth continued from 2010 to 2013, but at a more moderate pace: between 2010 and 2013, real incomes increased by 11.1%, and the average annual growth rate was approximately 3.6%. This reflected a transition to a slower phase of growth following the 2008–2009 crisis.
Since 2014, the trend has changed. Against the backdrop of falling global oil prices, sanctions, a weakening ruble, and accelerating inflation, real incomes began declining in 2014 by 1.1%, in 2015 by 4.56%, in 2016 by 4.79%, and in 2017 by 0.42% compared to the previous year, respectively.
As a result, by 2017, the figure was 10.5% below the 2013 level, and the average annual rate of change from 2013 to 2017 was approximately −2.7%. By 2017, real incomes had effectively returned to the 2010 level.
In 2018–2019, there was a slight recovery: 1.57% in 2018 and 1.77% in 2019. However, the 2019 level still remained below the 2013 level.
In 2020, against the backdrop of the pandemic, real incomes fell by approximately 1.35%.
Then a new period of growth began: in 2021, real income increased by 4.16%; in 2022, by 4.32%; in 2023, by 6.81%; in 2024 by 10.08%, and in 2025, according to estimates, by another 7.78% compared to the previous year. Looking at the period from 2022 to 2025, real average per capita cash income increased by 26.7%, with an average annual growth rate of about 8.2%. This growth can be attributed to increased government spending, rising nominal wages, and a labor shortage. As a result, following a period of decline and weak recovery, real incomes exceeded the 2013 level for the first time in 2023 and remained above it in 2024–2025, according to the calculations.