For the first time, the Bank of Russia has assessed the accuracy of forecasts provided by participants in the macroeconomic survey, which has been conducted since 2021 ahead of each Board of Directors meeting on the key rate. About 30 market and academic analysts participate in the survey, and their forecasts are used by the Bank of Russia when making monetary policy decisions.
The assessment was based on four indicators: inflation, the average annual key rate, GDP growth, and the average annual ruble-to-dollar exchange rate. Winners were determined separately for two time horizons: February 2024–December 2025 and June 2022–December 2025.
Dr. Drobyshevsky, Senior Researcher at the Gaidar Institute, took first place in the “Ruble-to-Dollar Exchange Rate” category for both time periods. He was also honored with an award from the Bank of Russia for his continuous participation in the survey from 2021 to 2025.
The Gaidar Institute team congratulates Dr. Drobyshevsky on his well-deserved victory! This recognition confirms the Gaidar Institute’s high level of expertise in the field of macroeconomic forecasting.