Sergey Drobyshevsky, Principal Researcher at the Gaidar Institute, commented for RBC that the decline in unemployment in Russia is one of the factors driving wage growth, especially in regions where the average annual wage has reached Rb100,000.
"The highest wage growth is observed primarily in those industries that are most affected by labor shortages, while demand for their products may either grow or remain at a constant level. Overall, we see a continuing trend of declining unemployment in the labor market this year, stabilizing at 2.2% of the economically active population (compared to 2.3-2.5% in 2024). Accordingly, all industries will find it more difficult to attract workers or replace those who have left, and more skilled workers will find it easier to expect higher salaries when moving to a new job. Accordingly, in industries that require lower qualifications or that operate in regions with a large working-age population (e.g., the North Caucasus), average wages are growing more slowly, but are nevertheless also rising," the expert said.
Sergey Drobyshevsky also noted that despite the increase in the number of regions with high salaries, “there have been no significant shifts in the ranking of regions by salary level, with the upper and lower quartiles remaining unchanged.”
“According to our estimates, by the end of 2025, nominal wages in the Russian Federation will grow by an average of 15-16%, which corresponds to a real growth of 5-6%,” the expert predicted.