SERGEI TSUKHLO: “A REVIVAL OF THE RUSSIAN INDUSTRY IN Q3 DOES NOT INSPIRE ANY CONFIDENCE”
In his interview with the Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily, Sergei Tsukhlo expressed doubts that based on the results of August the Russian industry would show a better momentum than in July.
Overall, Russian companies completed Q2 with a 25% growth in profits and started Q3 with an increase in output so that July indicators based on Rosstat’s official statistics happened to be markedly better than in June 2022. Extractive industries as well as manufacturing industries related with the defense sector received the highest revenues, while enterprises highly reliant on imports and western technologies found themselves in deep trouble.
The outputs of surveys of Russian companies show mixed dynamics, but, overall, dynamics of companies’ expectations regarding the level of demand for their products, output plans and staff hiring projections are low, Sergei Tsukhlo notes. Specifically, the indicator of output actual dynamics was “in a minus” in August. “It means that by enterprises’ estimates they produce less products this month than in the previous one. These actual output dynamics are quite consistent with demand’s momentum which is still negative,” Sergei Tsukhlo explained.
Also, by enterprises’ estimates, balances of changes in demand remain close to the current crisis minimum and fail to demonstrate so far “a bounce-back from the bottom of the crisis.” This indicator’s improvement in August only returned it to the level of March 2022, explained Sergei Tsukhlo.
The outputs of surveys of Russian companies show mixed dynamics, but, overall, dynamics of companies’ expectations regarding the level of demand for their products, output plans and staff hiring projections are low, Sergei Tsukhlo notes. Specifically, the indicator of output actual dynamics was “in a minus” in August. “It means that by enterprises’ estimates they produce less products this month than in the previous one. These actual output dynamics are quite consistent with demand’s momentum which is still negative,” Sergei Tsukhlo explained.
Also, by enterprises’ estimates, balances of changes in demand remain close to the current crisis minimum and fail to demonstrate so far “a bounce-back from the bottom of the crisis.” This indicator’s improvement in August only returned it to the level of March 2022, explained Sergei Tsukhlo.