Roman Karikh, Senior Researcher at the Gaidar Institute's Evidence-Based Economics Department, spoke about trends in the mortgage market in a commentary for Izvestia. According to him, the market is recovering against the backdrop of a decline in the key rate, and preferential programs, primarily family mortgages, remain its main driver.
The expert noted that further dynamics will depend on adjustments to state support. "In the short term — at the end of this year and the beginning of next year — the issuance of preferential loans will be supported by the expansion of Far Eastern mortgages and, at the same time, expectations of a tightening of family mortgages by the Ministry of Finance from February 1, 2026. Further, provided that the current restrictions on preferential programs (for example, with regard to limits) remain in place, the driver of state support will gradually weaken, because, given the growth in prices for primary real estate, it will be possible to purchase fewer and fewer square meters within the limits of family mortgages established in 2018," said Roman Karikh.
Such a scenario, as the expert noted, encourages families to choose a combined loan, which will increase the share of market mortgages. He also added that borrowers under combined loans will soon be able to reduce the market rate through refinancing, as specified in the Ministry of Finance's resolution.