Olga Rozanova, Senior Researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s International Trade Department, told RBC how the extreme heat in Europe could affect the Russian economy.
According to the expert’s forecast, in the short term, the Russian economy may gain certain advantages from the changing European climate. Due to the heatwave in Europe, gas prices on the spot market have risen, increasing the profitability of some Russian gas exports. In addition, lower harvests in some European countries could strengthen the position of Russian grain exporters on the global market
However, the long-term consequences of climate change appear less favorable. As Olga Rozanova noted, global warming also affects Russia: southern agricultural regions may face more frequent droughts and lower crop yields. At the same time, northern territories, on the contrary, may gain new opportunities for agricultural development if they manage to adapt to changing climatic conditions.
The expert cited the potential acceleration of climate policy in Europe as another risk factor. If extreme weather prompts European countries to transition more rapidly to low-carbon energy, this could eventually alter global demand for traditional energy resources.
“It is important to distinguish between the short-term and long-term consequences of the heatwave. Right now, Russia may gain certain advantages: rising gas prices are increasing the profitability of some shipments, and reduced harvests in a number of European countries are creating additional opportunities for Russian grain exports. But in the long term, climate change will also affect our country. Furthermore, the acceleration of the ‘green transition’ in Europe could alter the structure of global demand for energy resources, so it is already important for Russia to adapt to these new conditions,” emphasized Olga Rozanova.