Olga Ponomaryova assessed Russia's foreign economic prospects amid the US-China trade war
Olga Ponomaryova, expert at the Economic Policy Foundation, analyzed in a commentary for RT how the US decision to impose trade tariffs on China and a number of other countries may affect Russia’s foreign economic agenda.
According to Olga Ponomaryova, the reorganization of international trade and global markets will be the key channel of influence on Russia. The expert noted that restrictions in such a large market as the US one can lead to «a reorientation of supplies from trading partners to alternative markets, including domestic ones, which can increase competitive pressure». This, in turn, can negatively affect the positions of Russian suppliers on sales markets in neutral countries, especially in the metallurgical sector.
«For the domestic Russian market there are also risks due to the reorientation of supplies, the main vulnerability lies in the already high degree of dependence on imports from China, which may increase in a wide range of goods: cars, machinery and equipment, products of chemical and metallurgical industries, minerals, various types of finished products», — emphasized Olga Ponomaryova.
Despite the potential risks, the expert sees opportunities for Russia. «Russia’s foreign economic agenda, including integration, is rapidly developing — interaction in the EAEU, CIS, BRICS and SCO platforms has been developing very dynamically in recent years; Russia’s reorientation towards neutral countries has formed incentives for further deepening of cooperation. External global shocks may contribute to these processes and strengthen the trend towards deeper regionalization," said Olga Ponomaryova.
The expert emphasized the importance of maintaining the pace in the development of the most interesting project areas for Russia, including the development of infrastructure in the Eurasian region, the implementation of projects in the manufacturing industry, attracting investment and technology into the Russian economy. Depending on the development of the situation, the desire of partners to expand cooperation with Russia can be used, among other things, as a lever in negotiations to form mutually beneficial terms of agreements, said Olga Ponomaryova. In her opinion, it is also important to monitor the dynamics of trade flows, in particular imports, by individual commodity groups in order to exclude excessive pressure from the reorientation of global supply chains.
Monday, 14.04.2025