Olga Ponomareva, expert at the Economic Policy Fund of the Gaidar Institute, spoke to RBC about the economic impact of direct payments to the population, using Taiwan as an example, and compared this experience with the practices in Alaska, Macau, Hong Kong, and Singapore.
In Taiwan, payments to the population have become a way to redistribute part of the income generated by the technology boom. Unlike Alaska, where an oil dividend mechanism has been in place since 1982, Taiwan’s source of additional revenue is the technology sector—primarily the production of semiconductors and equipment.
According to Olga Ponomareva, technological growth increases the profits of Chinese companies, the incomes of some workers, and tax revenues, but at the same time, it can widen disparities between economic sectors and groups of workers. Therefore, direct payments make it possible to partially extend the benefits of the technology boom to a broader segment of the population.
However, it would be unwise to expect that all the funds received by citizens will be spent and provide a significant long-term boost to the economy. A study by Academia Sinica showed that only 15–29% of Taiwan’s 2025 payment went toward additional consumption. The remaining funds were used for routine expenses or put into savings.
The expert notes that this in itself does not indicate that such a policy is ineffective. If the government’s goal is to quickly bolster household incomes and consumer demand, one-time payments can be a justified tool. However, they generally do not ensure sustainable growth in demand.
“Universal, non-targeted payments can be allocated toward any household needs, and for vulnerable groups, pressing priorities may involve covering regular expenses or increasing savings. At the same time, savings can also be a source of economic growth—on the other hand—since they create a pool of resources for investment in the economy. Therefore, the effectiveness of such payments should be assessed not only based on what proportion was spent immediately, but also in light of the goals set by the government,” concluded Olga Ponomareva.