Olga Ponomareva, Expert at the Gaidar Institute's Economic Policy Foundation, presented a detailed review of the transformation of Russia's energy flows in a commentary for Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed.
According to the speaker, amid geoeconomic changes, Russia is actively reorienting its energy supplies to the East, primarily to China and India. However, the type of these relations is determined not by political circumstances, but by economic logic and the interests of importing countries. This involves a complex system of factors, including contract pricing parameters, supply reliability, and strategic energy security objectives.
Olga Ponomareva bases her conclusions on an analysis of the current structure of international oil trade, as well as institutional changes within the Russian economy. Specifically, she highlights the development of national financial infrastructure, i.e., expansion of trading mechanisms and development of proprietary price benchmarks designed to reduce dependence on Western indices.
"The equation that determines Moscow's relations with its partners, primarily China and India, is based on purely practical calculations related to contract prices, supply chain stability, and energy security balance of importers," noted Olga Ponomareva.
She believes, despite the importance of pricing, the key condition for large buyers today remains the stability of supplies, which largely depends on Russia's ability to adapt logistics to sanctions restrictions.
The speaker also highlighted Russia's expanding presence in the Chinese market. Russia currently accounts for approximately 20% of China's oil imports, while the share of Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, reaches almost 50%. Possible redistribution of these shares remains open amid instability in the region.
"Beijing is implementing an energy security strategy based on diversification and accumulation of strategic reserves, which exceeded 1 bn barrels by early 2026. Any significant expansion of Russia's presence in the Chinese market will be temporary and related to the current period of instability," the expert emphasized.
Summing up, Olga Ponomareva noted that as the situation in the Middle East stabilizes, China will likely return to its previous import structure. This means that Russia's long-term prospects in Asian markets will depend not only on price competitiveness but also on its ability to ensure reliable and sustainable supplies in a highly competitive environment.