Olga Ponomareva and Dmitry Kuznetsov estimated the effect of the EU sanctions against aluminum from Russia

Olga Ponomareva, expert of the Foundation for Social and Economical Research, said that the EU ban on imports of primary aluminum will expand sanctions with regard to aluminum industry in Russia, however, the effects of these measures will likely to be limited. First, the market had already partially reacted to the prospect of such measures being introduced by the EU a month earlier. Second, the EU has designed a transitional mechanism for its importing enterprises to adapt to the new restrictions. For the next 12 months, a quota for Russian aluminum imports has been set at 80% of the 2024 production volumes. Moreover, the phased introduction of a complete ban will allow Russian suppliers, in particular Rusal, to reorient their exports.

Furthermore, on the whole, trade between the EU and Russia has already undergone a period of major reorientation, and companies' strategies are focused on further shifting of trade flows to alternative trading partners. According to estimates, if in 2022 the EU accounted for about 40% of the physical volume of Russian exports of non-ferrous metals, in 2023 it will be about 15–17%, the expert gave an example. According to Olga Ponomareva, a much more significant role for Russia will be the development of demand for aluminum in priority trade areas such as China, India and other Asian countries, and shaping trade conditions for expanding supplies.

Dmitry Kuznetsov, Researcher, International Trade Department at the Gaidar Institute, added that trade flows can be relatively easily reoriented. This is why consistent sanctions policy against Russian aluminum has had virtually no impact on global prices, while demand from Asian countries has largely offset the decline in Russian exports to the UK, the EU, and the US. Given the fact that restrictive measures are likely to be stretched over time, as well as considering what industry experts say about the surplus of the world market, we will not be able to see the effects of new restrictions on aluminum consuming industries, the expert stressed.

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