Olga Magomedova, Researcher at the Gaidar Institute's International Best Practices Analysis Department, assessed the prospects for changes in drug prices in 2026 in a comment for RTVI. According to her, one of the factors driving growth will be changes in the taxation of supply chain participants, which will increase costs for end consumers.
"Distributors are the most vulnerable to price increases along the supply chain due to their low margins but high turnover. Moreover, they face increased costs for logistics, storage and inventory management infrastructure, and financing. Taken together, the tax burden will be most sensitive for this link in the supply chain from manufacturer to consumer," said Olga Magomedova.
The expert does not expect a sharp jump in prices. “Pricing in pharmacies requires adaptation to changes in logistics, retail space, and ICT equipment costs, which will take time, probably the next six months,” explained Olga Magomedova.
According to the expert, drugs not included in the list of essential and vital medicines (ZhNVLP). “They are not subject to state price regulation or preferential supply conditions for certain categories of citizens. It is easier for pharmacies to compensate for the costs incurred along the chain for this category of drugs,” she noted.
Another consequence of price pressure, according to Olga Magomedova's forecast, will be increased competition for customers and the growth of personalized marketing. "This, in turn, increases the demand for consumer personal data bases, including sensitive health data (for example, data from personal devices for monitoring health). Consequently, the information security risks for operators of such data increase (risks of attacks on infrastructure to obtain databases for subsequent resale), and for users, the risks of unfair use of their data increase (from spam to aggressive advertising or personalized pricing bordering on discrimination)," the expert added.