Not competitors, but partners: How marketplaces help traditional retail grow

In recent years, the e-commerce market in Russia has been growing rapidly. By the end of 2024, its volume had increased by approximately 40% and reached КRb9–11.4 trillion. At the same time, more than two-thirds of online sales are accounted for by multi-category marketplaces, which are actively expanding their presence not only in retail but also in related sectors, including financial services. Against this backdrop, public debate is intensifying: representatives of traditional retail and the banking sector fear that online platforms are gaining unfair competitive advantages and driving offline stores out of business.

However, statistics and research paint a more complex picture. Despite isolated cases of store closures, the total number of stores in Russia continued to grow in 2023–2024, albeit at a moderate pace—about 1% per year. Moreover, the decline in the number of stores in small towns has been observed since the mid-2010s and began long before the rapid development of marketplaces.

To understand the real-world impact of digital platforms, researchers focused on the specifics of the Russian e-commerce model, in which pickup points play a key role. By the end of 2025, their number exceeded 237,000, of which more than 171,000 belong to marketplaces. In just one year, the network of pickup points for the largest platforms grew by more than 30%, making them one of the fastest-growing formats of retail infrastructure.

The research methodology was based on regression analysis at the municipal level, taking into account socioeconomic characteristics: population size, income level, degree of urbanization, and transportation accessibility. Researchers assessed the relationship between the number of pickup points and traditional stores, as well as their impact on the dynamics of retail turnover per capita.

The results showed that the impact of marketplaces is ambiguous at first glance but generally positive. In municipalities with a higher density of online marketplaces in 2024, there is indeed a lower number of stores per thousand residents, which may indicate competition. However, this may also indicate that marketplaces are drawn to areas with established demand but insufficient coverage of the population by retail infrastructure. A more in-depth analysis, taking into account persistent differences among municipalities and the dynamics of retail infrastructure development, revealed that the relationship between the number of pickup points and the number of stores is positive.

For example, the opening of one additional online store per thousand people is associated with an increase of 0.88 stores relative to the average. This suggests that the synergy effect outweighs the displacement effect. Online stores and traditional brick-and-mortar stores form a shared ecosystem, boosting consumer traffic and enhancing the area’s appeal.

“Our analysis shows that marketplaces do not undermine local commerce but rather integrate into it, creating additional growth opportunities. Synergy between these formats proves to be stronger than direct competition,” noted Alexandra Savina, one of the study’s authors and Researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s Quantitative Analysis of Economic Effects Department.

An additional effect stems from changes in consumer behavior. The reduction in transaction costs—the time and expense involved in searching for and purchasing goods—stimulates additional demand. People begin making purchases they had previously postponed or had not planned at all. This, in turn, supports overall retail sales.

The impact of marketplaces is particularly noticeable when broken down by different types of regions. In large cities, where the market is close to saturation, the opening of an additional pickup point in 2024 contributed to much less pronounced growth in turnover than in densely populated rural areas, where the development of marketplaces is catching up.

“Pickup points are becoming not just logistics hubs, but new centers of local economic activity. They improve access to goods and mitigate negative trends associated with the reduction of retail infrastructure in certain areas,” emphasized one of the project’s authors, Natalia Antonenko, Researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s Quantitative Analysis of Economic Effects Department.

Finally, the authors emphasized that the findings call for a balanced approach to regulating the industry. Excessive restrictions could undermine the positive effects of marketplace development.

Thus, the study shows that the digitalization of retail does not replace traditional formats but transforms them, creating a hybrid model in which online and offline complement each other. Amid the continued growth of e-commerce, it is precisely this model that can serve as the foundation for the sustainable development of local markets.