The transformation of Russian coal exports: global demand trends and market positions in China and India

An analysis of forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and BP indicates a consensus on the long-term trend of declining global coal consumption, with consumption peaking no later than the early 2030s. China is the main driver of this decline. At the same time, Russian coal exports are facing mixed trends in two key Asian markets. In China, Russia’s competitive position is weakening in the thermal coal segment but remains strong and is growing in the higher-margin coking coal segment, where Russia occupies an intermediate niche between cheap Mongolian and expensive Australian coal. In India, by contrast, Russian exports are showing steady growth thanks to a significant price advantage. However, further expansion is hampered by sanctions and logistical risks, as well as India’s import substitution policy, which aims to reduce coal purchases. Thus, to preserve Russia’s export potential, a consistent reorientation toward markets and segments with stable demand (coking coal in China and India) is necessary, while simultaneously diversifying logistics routes and removing tariff barriers.