The federal budget has a safety margin, balancing it is becoming more difficult

The short-term sustainability of the federal budget is not in question, even despite a fairly significant current deficit and the suspension of debt financing in July 2026. Meanwhile, the risks of falling short on non-oil and gas revenues are increasing, volatility in commodity revenue flows is rising, and geopolitical uncertainty persists. All of these factors could significantly complicate both the execution of this year’s budget and the process of drafting the federal budget for the coming year