Price dynamics on global food markets in 2025 and expectations for 2026

The FAO Food Price Index stood at 127.2 points at the end of 2025, which is 4.3% higher than in 2024, but 12.0% lower than the peak values of 2022. Prices stabilized after the crises caused by the pandemic and geopolitical tensions. Wheat prices at the end of 2025 were close to their long-term lows, with no discounts for Russian products on the world market – wheat prices from the Russian Federation are comparable to those of other exporters. Unlike grain, vegetable oils are showing steady growth: in 2025, their prices doubled compared to 2019, partly due to a reduction in the discount on palm oil. Meat prices remained stable at a high level, while dairy prices fell in the second half of the year. Sugar prices returned to the historically low levels of 2019–2020. Among the main food products imported by Russia, the highest growth since 2019 was seen in the prices of coffee and cocoa beans (a threefold increase), while the price of bananas fell to its base level after rising in 2022–2023. Forecasts for 2026 do not suggest any sharp price dynamics. In the long term, prices are expected to stabilize in nominal terms, with a downward trend in real terms.