Inflation is slowing down, but inflationary risks remain

At its meeting on September 12, 2025, the Bank of Russia lowered its key rate by 100 basis points to 17% per annum. In August, inflation slowed to 8.1%, the lowest level since April 2024. For the first time since August 2022, there was a 0.4% decline in the overall level of consumer prices relative to the previous month. However, significant inflationary risks remain, including a resumption of credit growth, inflationary expectations and budget deficits, tensions in the labor market, and a weakening of the ruble amid slowing global GDP growth and falling oil prices in the event of escalating tensions in global trade.