Inflation and monetary policy in October 2025

At its meeting on October 24, 2025, the Bank of Russia lowered the key rate by 50 basis points to 16.5% per annum. In October, annual inflation over the past 12 months was 7.7% y/y, the lowest since March 2024. Compared to the previous month, the overall consumer price level increased by 0.5%. Pro-inflationary risks continue to prevail over disinflationary ones. The main pro-inflationary factors include: growth in lending, inflationary expectations and the budget deficit, continued tension in the labor market, lower oil prices, indexation of housing and communal services tariffs and VAT.