Decomposition of Russian economic growth rates in 2025–2026

To assess the current state of the Russian economy, we conducted decomposition of Russian GDP growth rates. The contribution of fundamental factors of production (labor, capital, total factor productivity) reached approximately 1.97 p.p. in 2025. The contribution of global oil price dynamics was negative, amounting to around -1.23 p.p., while the sum of the business cycle and random shocks components accounted for approximately 0.26 p.p. of growth.