Maria Girich, Researcher at the Gaidar Institute's International Best Practices Analysis Department, explained in a commentary for Vzglyad how the decline in oil and gas revenues is triggering structural changes in the Russian economy.
Despite a 21.4% decline in oil and gas export revenues in January–October 2025, total federal budget revenues increased. This was due to a 30% increase in revenues from the non-oil and gas sector. "In Russia, the non-oil sector provides significant support to the economy. According to the Federal Tax Service, non-oil and gas revenues to the budget system grew by 15.1% in 2025, particularly from the manufacturing industry, the financial sector, construction, trade, and the IT sector. The increase in revenues was probably influenced by the increase in taxes from 20% to 25%. Previously, 3% of the tax went to the federal budget and 17% to the regional budget, but now 8% goes to the federal budget. Companies and individual entrepreneurs on the simplified tax system with revenues exceeding 60 million rubles per year will be required to pay VAT starting in 2025, which has also brought in additional revenue. A progressive personal income tax scale has also been introduced," noted Maria Girich.
Responding to a question about why the economy did not go into negative territory, the expert pointed to the role of the budget rule, which helps to reduce the impact of falling oil prices. "If oil and gas revenues had fallen like this before, the consequences would have been more severe. For example, in the early 2000s, the sector provided 50% of Russia's budget revenues, more than 70% of exports, and about 5% of jobs. It is for this reason that Russia has long refused to join international climate agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol. At that time, the oil and gas sector provided the largest revenues," she explained.
Assessing the degree of Russia's dependence on raw materials, Maria Girich suggested distinguishing between the structure of the budget and the structure of exports. "The budget has become less dependent on oil. For example, according to the Gaidar Institute, in the first seven months of 2025, fuel and energy products accounted for up to 56.1% of Russian exports. Thus, in terms of exports and foreign exchange earnings, Russia remains a resource-oriented country, as more than half of its exports are fuel and energy products," the expert emphasized.