Maria Girich, Researcher of the International Best Practices Analysis Department at the Gaidar Institute, commented to Forbes on the situation in the global uranium market. In her research, the expert considered the reasons for price fluctuations, the industry's prospects, and Russia's position amid sanctions restrictions.
Commenting on the recent spike in uranium prices above $100 per pound and the subsequent correction, Maria Girich explained that the figures observed on the exchange do not fully reflect the true market picture. She noted the importance of distinguishing between spot prices and the long-term contracts that underpin nuclear energy.
"On the whole, spot markets react to changes in the geopolitical situation, while prices under long-term contracts change more inertly, only through revision of terms and pricing formulas when concluding new deals. Therefore, changes in US policy could very well impact price fluctuations in spot markets," explained Maria Girich.
Despite temporary fluctuations, the expert assessed fundamental factors influencing the metal's price.
"If it is about 'optimism in terms of long-term growth in uranium demand,' I would say it's justified, as the construction of new power plants and the overall renaissance of nuclear energy from 2023–2024 have increased demand for uranium. Prices will likely continue to rise," said Maria Girich.
In her commentary, the expert also assessed Russia's position, which continues to play a key role in the global nuclear supply chain, despite western efforts to diversify supplies. She believes that in 2024, Russia accounted for approximately 20% of uranium product shipments to the United States. However, assessing the real impact of the American ban, signed in May 2024, is currently impossible due to the lack of export data for 2025.
Commenting on the position of the European Union, Maria Girich noted that the phase-out process could be delayed. "The EU has indeed decided to phase out Russian uranium and even adopted a roadmap to that effect. However, by the end of 2025, countries were required to submit plans for phasing out Russian nuclear services, as well as gas and oil. Therefore, we should expect a discussion of these plans and then assess whether and how soon the EU will phase out nuclear energy from Russia," the expert explained.
In conclusion, Maria Girich stated that Russian nuclear industry is currently stable thanks to its closed production cycle and large-scale export program.
"Rosatom has indeed fulfilled its production plans. Furthermore, the company is building 41 power units in 11 countries. Therefore, despite the US refusal, Russia will be able to enter new markets (for example, by developing nuclear power plant construction and fuel supplies to China and India, as well as African markets (such as Ethiopia and Egypt), especially through enrichment services, which remain unique for now," the expert concluded.