Margarita Kropocheva, Researcher of the Mathematical Modelling of Economic Processes Department at the Gaidar Institute, commented for Vzglyad on the Russia’s plans to increase the fleet of industrial robots.
Based on the study by the Gaidar Institute ”The relationship between industrial robots, labor shortages and labor productivity in Russia’s regions” the expert stated that concerns about rising unemployment due to automation, while relevant in other countries, are not yet as critical in Russia due to the specifics of the current labor market situation.
Russia is facing a growing labor shortage, including in manufacturing sectors where industrial robots are being actively deployed. It can be suggested that robots are filling vacancies rather than displacing existing workers," explained Margarita Kropocheva.
At the same time, she acknowledged that there are risks for workers, as automation inevitably leads to a change in the employment structure. "According to the consulting firm Yakov & Partners (previously McKinsey), on average, one industrial robot replaces two to four people. Imagine a scenario with an average estimate when one robot is replacing three workers. Then, all other things being equal, robotics could free up approximately 330,500 workers by 2030. However, this estimate may be overstated, as some industrial robots may not replace existing workers but rather take over vacancies to expand production," Margarita Kropocheva emphasized.
The expert also noted that successful robotization requires highly qualified personnel capable to create, set and maintain new equipment, but such specialists are currently in short supply. "Therefore, professional retraining programs for employees who have lost their jobs due to robotization can be a possible solution to the problem of workers being displaced by robots," she concluded.