Lyubov Filin: “Trump's executive order may lead to the disappearance of rare drugs in Russia”

According to the expert, pegging US domestic prices for prescription drugs to minimum global prices will force pharma companies to raise price tags in Europe and in unregulated segments of the Russian market.

“The Russian potential for such a maneuver is limited: the prices of VEDs (vital and essential drugs) are controlled, and the solvency of the population is low. Nevertheless, the risk of supply reduction and withdrawal of rare drugs remains if they become economically unprofitable for manufacturers,” Lyubov Filin said. The expert also emphasized that Trump’s executive order may lead to a narrowing of the selection, delays in deliveries and price increases for unregulated drugs, especially imported drugs without domestic analogues.

“Lower margins of pharmaceutical companies may lead to a reduction in investments in clinical trials and localization of production facilities in countries with low profit margins, including Russia. Already in 2024, there was a decrease in the number of clinical trials in Russia compared to previous years. This may slow down the introduction of innovative drugs and technologies, as well as limit the access of Russian patients to new treatment methods,” said Lyubov Filin.

“Over the past five years, the Russian pharmaceutical market has demonstrated growth. In 2024, its volume hit Rb 2.85 trillion, up 10% year-on-year. However, in physical terms (in packages), the growth was less significant: in 2024, about 4.12 bn packages were produced, which is only 0.8% more than in 2023,” the expert emphasized.

Lyubov Filin drew attention to the fact that Russia traditionally takes the lower part of the world price range for medicines due to several factors. State regulation of prices for vital and essential drugs limits their growth. Import substitution helps to reduce dependence on imports and keep prices lower. Limited ability of the population to pay restrains the growth of prices for medicines.

However, the expert noted exceptions when drug prices in Russia are higher than their global counterparts. “In some cases, prices for certain drugs in Russia may be higher than in other countries. For example, according to the FAS RF, the drug esomeprazole cost about Rb250 in Germany, while in Russia its price exceeded Rb2,500,” explained Lyubov Filin.