Researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s International Best Practices Analysis Department, Kirill Chernovol, in commentary for RBC assessed the outlook for the Russian stock market’s market capitalization and identified the factors that are currently limiting its growth.
According to data from the Moscow Exchange, the market capitalization of the Russian stock market stood at Rb45.6 trillion as of the end of June. This represents about 20% of Russia’s projected GDP for 2026. By comparison, at the end of 2025, the figure reached Rb52.9 trillion, or approximately 24.7% of GDP.
In August, the Moscow Exchange Index fell to about 2,050 points, but by September 9, it had recovered to 2264 points. Kirill Chernovol believes that if this trend continues and there are no new shocks, the market could return to its end-2025 levels by the end of the year.
“If the market continues to recover and there are no new shocks, then by the end of the year we can expect a recovery to roughly the level seen at the end of 2025—in the range of 2500–2700 points. This corresponds to approximately 21–23% of GDP. However, for a more optimistic scenario, additional incentives would need to emerge for large institutional investors to choose stocks, and at present, there are no clear signs of this,” noted Kirill Chernovol.
The expert also highlighted the structural constraints of the Russian stock market. In particular, large long-term investors are still investing relatively little in stocks. For instance, they account for about 9% of pension reserves and 7.4% of non-state pension fund (NPF) savings, despite current limits of up to 40%.
Another limiting factor remains the small number of new companies listed on the exchange. In 2025, there were only four initial public offerings (IPOs) totaling Rb37 bn, and so far in 2026, there have been two IPOs.
According to Kirill Chernovol, market dynamics are influenced not only by competition between stocks, deposits, and bonds. The participation of long-term investors, interest from foreign participants, and the emergence of new companies that can expand the stock market all play an important role.