“The 2025 budget already envisages a deficit of about 1.7% of GDP. It will most likely be covered by internal borrowings and partial spending of the National Welfare Fund (NWF). A sharp tax tightening is really not an absolute necessity under such a scheme, and the government is deliberately betting on debt financing and reserve funds to avoid stifling investment demand. Assuming that banks can “move to other instruments” most likely means that their profits can be redirected from classical lending to less taxed or completely unrecognized schemes, such as bonds, repo, and money market.
Higher taxes will encourage banks to minimize their tax base by transferring some assets to
In 2001, Russia switched to a flat rate of 13%, having refused the progressive scale of 12–30% due to low tax discipline. This resulted in PIT revenues growing by about a quarter in the first year after the introduction. At that time, such a model simplified administration and created incentives for “coming out of the shadows”. We returned to partial progression (15% on income over Rb 5 mln) from 2021, and now the scale up to 22% is being discussed. The rationale is the need for additional income and the principle of social justice given the growing military expenditures.
Meanwhile, the RF Ministry of Finance noted that new rates will affect only about 3% of taxpayers, i.e. the fiscal burden will be targeted while maintaining a moderate tax mode for the majority of the employed,” the expert said.