Kirill Chernovol, Researcher of the International Best Practices Analysis Department at the Gaidar Institute, told Izvestia about underlying trends in the Russian labor market.
Kirill Chernovol noted that despite unemployment reaching a new all-time low in Russia, the labor market situation remains ambiguous. Official figures do not reflect the full picture, and a gradual increase in tensions can be expected by the end of the year.
According to Rosstat, the unemployment rate fell to 2.15% in February, or 2% when adjusted for seasonal factors. However, the expert noted that it is critical to distinguish between the calculation methods. The International Labor Organization (ILO) standard counts all unemployed people, while registered unemployment only reflects those officially registered. These two indicators can show contrary dynamics.
Kirill Chernovol gives specific figures: In February 2026, total number of unemployed people was approximately 1.6 mn, while registered unemployment was only 0.3 mn. Moreover, overall unemployment was 8.4% lower than in the previous year, while registered unemployment, on the contrary, increased by 6.6%. This indicates structural changes in the labor market and possible hidden employment problems.
"Most likely, by the middle or end of the year, we will face a gradual increase in unemployment rather than its sharp spike due to a slowdown in hiring and longer times for job search. These are precisely the signals currently emerging in the market. The Bank of Russia's forecasts also point to a moderate increase to around 2.4% by the end of the year," concluded Kirill Chernovol