Kirill Chernovol, Researcher of the International Best Practices Analysis Department at the Gaidar Institute, commented for RBC on assessment of the slowdown in labor productivity growth in Russia, which, according to economists' estimates, has fallen almost fivefold.
According to Kirill Chernovol, productivity growth estimate of around 0.7% appears plausible in terms of order of magnitude. He attributes this to the overall economic dynamics: according to Rosstat's first estimate, Russia's real GDP grew by only about 1% in 2025, making weak productivity growth an expected outcome.
"Final figures may be revised after labor cost data is refined and GDP is recalculated, as such adjustments have already taken place. Specifically, the GDP growth estimate for 2024 was raised from 4.3% to 4.9%," Kirill Chernovol recalled.
The expert noted that rising costs do not imply a decline in productivity as such. It slows when output and added value grow more slowly than labor costs. At the same time, he added, costs significantly influence productivity dynamics through profits, investment, and access to credit.
Kirill Chernovol referred to a research from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which found that sustainable productivity growth depends not only on the adoption of technology but also on its diffusion, investment in intangible assets, and development of worker skills. Insufficient investment in such assets typically slows productivity.
In the medium term, Kirill Chernovol expects a gradual improvement in indicators due to a low baseline in 2025, reduced labor market tensions, and more moderate wage growth, confirmed by the Bank of Russia. However, he estimates that a rapid reversal of this trend is unlikely without increased investment, automation, and updated management practices. He also noted that, according to OECD data, the impact of artificial intelligence has not yet had a noticeable effect on productivity statistics.