Kirill Chernovol, Researcher of the International Best Practices Analysis Department at the Gaidar Institute, commented for RBC on the possible consequences of the VAT introduction for purchases in foreign internet shops by Russian people.
He believes, cross-border trade currently accounts for approximately 3% of the entire Russian online market, and the average purchase is approximately Rb 1800. However, price remains the main reason people order goods from abroad.
The expert explains that introducing the tax will make imported goods more expensive and narrow the price gap with domestic ones. Authorities may introduce the tax gradually, and each increase could be preceded by a short-term surge in demand, especially for clothing, footwear, and electronics. However, this won't put significant pressure on the Russian market: local sellers have advantages in delivery speed and service, and the volume of cross-border trade is still small compared to the overall retail market. Nevertheless, the effect could be significant for certain product categories, where buyers are particularly price-sensitive.