In a commentary for RBC, Kirill Chernovol, Researcher at the Gaidar Institute's International Best Practices Analysis Department, assessed wage dynamics in Russia for 2026. According to his forecast, real income growth will continue but will be more moderate compared to 2023–2025.
“By the end of 2025, we can expect nominal wages to grow by about 13-15% compared to 2024. Real wages, i.e., ” what you can buy with this money“ taking into account inflation, will grow by 4-6%,” the expert said. At the same time, he stressed that this assessment is based on data already published for January–October 2025, and the final figures may be adjusted after the results for the whole year are summarized.
Kirill Chernovol also noted that due to the slowdown in wage growth, companies will be forced to change their approach: “Employers will have to retain employees not only with money, but also by making working conditions more attractive.”
In his opinion, given the limited budget for indexation, increases will be more targeted, and non-monetary forms of motivation will come to the fore. "The most ‘understandable’ forms of these are increased flexibility in work schedules, the ability to work remotely, more transparent and understandable rules for career growth within the company, opportunities for training and professional development, as well as voluntary medical insurance paid for by the employer. Of course, such forms of remuneration will still increase the financial burden on employers, but the positive effect in terms of employee loyalty from such forms may be higher than a small increase in salary," the expert explained.