Ivan Ermokhin, Researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s International Best Practices Analysis Department, Ivan Ermokhin, spoke to RBC about the differences between regional labor markets, the causes of labor imbalances, and measures that could help reduce them.
According to the expert, assessing the mismatch between labor supply and demand depends significantly on the data used. When calculated based on the resumes of active job seekers, the figure ranges from 6% to 10% without a clear trend. Data from the “Rabota Rossii” platform shows a higher figure—16.3%. Therefore, according to Ivan Ermokhin, the 30% figure should be viewed as an upper limit.
The differences are most pronounced between regions where new jobs are being created and areas with a labor surplus. The expert includes, in particular, the Sverdlovsk, Moscow, and Tula regions, as well as the Khabarovsk Territory and the Amur Region, in the first group. The second group comprises Dagestan, the Krasnodar Territory, Tatarstan, and the Novosibirsk Region.
At the same time, as Ivan Ermokhin notes, the redistribution of workers between regions is proceeding slowly. Willingness to relocate is influenced by the cost of housing and the move itself, family circumstances, and other factors. According to an analysis of resumes on “Rabota Rossii,” 4.2% of job seekers are willing to relocate, while only 0.4% are willing to work on a rotational basis.
“If new jobs appear quickly in some regions, the availability of a labor surplus in others does not in itself solve the labor shortage problem, since people are relatively slow to change their place of residence. Therefore, labor mobility alone will not close this gap. It is important to create jobs directly in regions with a labor surplus, develop organized recruitment and shift work, and retrain people to match the actual structure of demand,” noted Ivan Ermokhin.
The expert also drew attention to changes in the labor market: according to the Bank of Russia, labor market tightness is gradually easing, companies’ ability to fill vacancies is improving, and wage growth is slowing. Against this backdrop, the differences between regions with high and low labor demand may become even more pronounced.