In 2027, insurance pensions in Russia will be indexed twice — in February and April. However, the figures included in the budget may be revised to account for actual inflation. News.ru was told this by Ivan Ermokhin, Researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s International Best Practices Analysis Department. Ivan Ermokhin, Researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s International Best Practices Analysis Department, Ivan Ermokhin, spoke to RBC about the differences between regional labor markets, the causes of labor imbalances, and measures that could help reduce them.
According to current calculations, insurance pensions are scheduled to increase by 4% starting February 1 and by another 3.4% starting April 1. However, the final indexation parameters cannot yet be considered set in stone: the inflation forecast for 2026 has already risen significantly compared to the one used when the budget was drafted.
“The 4% currently planned for February is, in fact, based on the inflation rate that was expected when the budget was being prepared. However, the economic situation has changed: inflation estimates for 2026 have already been revised upward, so the indexation rates may be adjusted closer to the time the budget is adopted. There has already been a precedent for this—in 2025, the initially planned 7.3% indexation of insurance pensions was subsequently increased to 9.5% to account for actual inflation. Therefore, it is still too early to speak of 4% as the final increase. It is also important to consider the mechanism itself: the April increase primarily affects the value of the pension point, so the overall pension increase will be slightly lower than the arithmetic 7.5%,” explained Ivan Ermokhin.
According to current plans, social pensions will increase by approximately 4% starting April 1, 2027, and military pensions will increase by 4% starting October 1. However, the final payment amounts will also depend on the parameters of the federal budget and revised economic forecasts.